At the end of last week, we heard that GDP for May had slipped back once again, subverting predictions of a moderate increase (and the government’s pledge to grow the economy), likely influenced by the imposition of higher employer National Insurance Contributions.

Meanwhile, this weekend President Trump reiterated his determination to place prohibitive tariffs of 30% on goods imported from the EU and Mexico. While the UK has now signed a trade agreement with the US, tariffs on other nations can still have a big impact on businesses here importing products which have constituent parts from those countries and must therefore have the relative tariff burden applied.

So the news is all doom and gloom then? Right? Definitely. Maybe. Maybe not?
Much like the chances of Oasis staying together long-term, it’s virtually impossible to predict what will happen with any certainty, and arguments can be made either way.

Underscoring May’s GDP figures was an upward revision of March’s growth figures to show the economy had actually grown by more than previously thought (0.4% instead of 0.2%), indicating businesses had moved forward their activity to guard against the potential impact of the last round of tariffs. Moreover, the expansion in March means the economy still grew when the three months are taken together.

This should mean we see a further cut in interest rates to 4% in August, which would certainly be welcome news for many of us as we continue to battle against rising living costs.

It’s also fair to say that we have become accustomed to President Trump threatening one thing in the hope of something quite different happening, often with an ulterior motive hidden in plain sight. Plenty of stick, less carrot. So there remains a strong likelihood that these newly-announced tariffs will not make landfall.

What does all this mean for businesses? Well, it obviously depends on the nature and ambitions of each organisation. For some, brighter times are already here, as evidenced in parts of our latest Quarterly Economic Survey feedback, while for the majority it remains an opaque and worrying picture.

The only clear answer is that everything remains unclear, and this makes it incredibly difficult for firms to plan ahead on investment, recruitment or expansion. By way of consequence, while that uncertainty continues, it also makes it very difficult for the government and official forecasters to project their policies forward, and the holding spiral continues.

The past seven days almost encapsulate the past few years and they certainly underline what a challenging and changeable landscape it is for businesses right now. Tomorrow never knows, but we must hope that calmer economic skies lay ahead in the near future.