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Stick or twist? The scourge of economic uncertainty


The results of the latest Quarterly Economic Survey (QES) clearly reflect the difficult dilemma facing many business owners at the moment.

In the face of economic uncertainty, catalysed by government policy decisions and wider geopolitical issues, businesses in the Liverpool City Region are holding back from investing or hiring staff. They don’t know whether to stick or twist – while others are simply hanging on, hoping for better times ahead.

The survey shows taxation remains a pressing concern, with 62% of local firms regarding it as a greater worry now than they did three months ago, while inflation was highlighted by more than half of respondents. Many believe their prices will have to rise soon, largely due to the costs of employing people, plus utilities and raw material costs.

The wider picture shows stagnating turnover expectations, falling profitability and operations below full capacity. Cashflow has been hit for almost half of businesses with investment plans for tech, plant and machinery hardest hit. Export orders and sales have declined, UK sales remain more stable.

Pointedly, around two-thirds said they do not expect to change the size of their workforce in the next three months, but just 13% expect headcount to fall, reflecting a hesitancy among business owners to make longer-term decisions. A similar proportion have tried to recruit in the previous period, mainly for full-time roles, but 70% encountered problems doing so.

It all serves to underline the frustrating reality that many businesses find themselves in a state of paralysis, unable or unwilling to move ahead with growth or investment decisions, weighed down by worries over the impact of UK government policy around business taxation and the National Minimum Wage, plus global factors like tariffs and conflict.

Of course, there are opportunities out there and some businesses told us they have enjoyed a stronger second half to the year. However, this general trading environment is not conducive to growth, reflected in stagnant GDP and lower productivity, while the next Budget now looms heavily on the horizon for many.

Businesses need to feel they are in the right environment to take calculated risks and that the policymakers of the day will not conspire to undo their plans. It’s time for the government to reassure businesses by bringing forward a sustainable and deliverable long-term plan for economic growth. The first step on that road is no further tax raids on business owners and employers in November.

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